A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that polarised the country and triggered disorder, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author advocates unification or the current situation. Each writes two pieces that aim for impartiality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and societal data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over national emblems, levies, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate claim they prefer unity but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified arguments, he said. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will ultimately not succeed but all factions has got valuable insights to learn from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, urged O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
